Monday, October 03, 2005

For Your Information: Who Will Be The Ninth Justice?

UPDATE UPDATE: Survey says... Harriet Miers. Curb your enthusiasm folks.

UPDATE: Judge Williams is still trading highest (last sale at 10.0), but the number two is now Judge Luttig (8.1). Rumor (and I by that I mean CNN) says that a nomination is coming on Monday, but it would appear that no decision insider is leaking the information for personal gain. On a side note, if the nominee is Judge Luttig, you can count me among the concerned.

TradeSports is running a futures market on court nominations. The exchange is updated as transactions occur here. The idea is that people with inside knowledge, or the ability to winnow the possibilities down, will buy futures contracts on the nomination and bid the price of that nominee's contract up. RIght now the leading candidate is Judge Karen Williams, but she's still only trading at about 1/10 the payoff on the contract. This indicates that, if the market is actually working, no one knows who the nominee will be... yet.


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